,

It is often assumed that do not occur in Europe and that they are a weather phenomena specific to the United States. But this is far from true. Not only do tornadoes strike in Europe – they do millions of pounds worth of damage, cause serious injuries and even lead to fatalities. Despite these facts they are still perceived as a curiosity and as a result their threat is underestimated.

Tornadoes have not always been overlooked in Europe and many natural philosophers and scientists have proposed theories about their formation and impact. Theories were proposed by Greek philosophers such as Aristotle in Meteorologica and Roman philosophers such as Seneca in Naturales Quaestiones. The systematic study of European tornadoes began in the 17th-century. Writing in 1694, the Italian astronomer and mathematician analysed a tornado that occurred in the Veneto region of Italy in July 1686.

In fact, before the end of the World War II, European scientists and meteorologists led the research into tornadoes while in the United States the word “tornado” was because the government was . But the situation changed in March 1948 when Air Force Captain Robert C. Miller and Major Ernest J. Fawbush and, as a result, the United States began to surpass Europe in the study of twisters.

After 1950, the interest of European researchers and meteorologists declined, despite the occurrence of high-impact tornadoes. For example, six tornadoes resulted in 232 injuries and 15 fatalities in France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. There has also been regular less intense tornadoes doing damage throughout Europe, such as the ones that in north-west London in 2006 and . Despite these incidents, there has still been a general lack of interest resulting in a lack of tornado databases which in turn lead to the .

Over the last two years, my colleagues and I have tried to change the general public opinion – and even the opinion of some researchers and meteorologists – concerning European tornadoes. The aim is to show that tornadoes do occur in Europe, although their reported frequencies and intensities are lower compared with the United States.

focused on developing a pan-European baseline climatology of tornadoes and waterspouts (a tornado over a body of water). We synthesised tornado and waterspout observations across Europe between 1800-2014 to understand the spatial and temporal distribution of these weather phenomena.

The synthesis was based on regional tornado sightings and articles published in peer-review journals for 30 European countries which contained 9,563 tornadoes and waterspout reports. These reports came mainly from western, southern and northern Europe, with just a few reports coming from Eastern Europe where databases were only developed after 1990.

Collaboration is key

We showed that tornadoes in Europe need to be . Between 1950 and 2015, European tornadoes resulted in 4,462 injuries, 316 fatalities and damages estimated at more than €1 billion. To increase awareness about tornadoes in Europe and to reduce their threat we believe that meteorological services across the continent, including researchers and the general public, need to collaborate more.

The threat can only be understood from a pan-European perspective. The tornado impact for individual countries will be perceived as low because European countries have relatively small areas and so the number of tornadoes will be low when compared with the impact in the US. A low impact will not justify the investment in the development of tornado databases and development of warning systems.

The contribution from the general public is essential. Unlike temperature records which are measured by thermometers, tornado records require the presence of an observer and the existence of a system for collecting the observations. Such systems to collect tornado reports have only been developed recently. Citizen science projects – such as the were the general public can submit tornado reports which are then verified by meteorologist and researchers – are the most efficient way to develop a pan-European tornado database.

After being virtually ignored for more than 60 years, tornadoes in Europe are again a topic of research and discussion among academics and meteorologists. Despite the increased awareness of tornadoes, there is still more to learn about their spatial and temporal distribution and, maybe more important, about their impact.

, Research Associate School of Earth and Environmental Sciences,

This article was originally published on . Read the .

Scientists operating research aircraft over West Africa have detected organic materials in the atmosphere over a number of urban areas, contributing to concerns of the rise in pollution across the region.

The EU-funded Dynamics Aerosols Clouds and Climate in West Africa (DACCIWA) project has, for the first time, investigated the impacts of natural and manmade emissions on the West African atmosphere.

The team includes scientists from the Universities of Manchester, York, Leeds and Reading, led by the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology and in partnership with the UK National Centre for Atmospheric Science.

Three aircrafts, carrying sophisticated instruments to collect atmospheric data, were used to track air pollution from the big coastal cities of Accra, Abidjan, Lomé and Cotonou, as it streams inland reaching the forests and the Sahara.

It is thought that the organic materials detected in the atmosphere could be particles from the burning of charcoal, general rubbish, and agricultural waste and could impact the clouds and climate in the region.

Dr Mat Evans, from the University of York’s Wolfson Atmospheric Chemistry Laboratories, explains: “Monsoon winds with sea salt from the south, Sahara winds with dust from the north, charcoal fires and burning rubbish from cities as well as power plants, ship traffic, oil rigs and out-dated engines, contribute to the air over the coastal regions, making it a unique mixture of various gases, liquids and particles. At the same time, multi-layer cloud decks frequently form in the atmosphere that exerts a large influence on the local weather and climate.”

Scientists have been concerned for some time now that a rapidly growing population in the region, urbanisation, and complex meteorological influences, as well as unregulated deforestation and air pollution, have modified the composition of the atmosphere. This not only impacts on human health but also the weather and climate.

The true extent of the problem and exactly how these emissions are changing the region in the long-term are still unknown.

Dr John Marsham, from the University of Leeds, said: “The measurements we have taken from the aircrafts have shown us for the first time an enormous complexity in the different cloud layers, the causes of which are still unclear.”

The long-term aim of the project is to identify new and more precise climate, weather and air quality models to support policies for a more sustainable climate for the region.

Two experts from 91Ö±²¥ have contributed to a new Government report on climate change, which predicts that global warming will hit our shores with severe heatwaves, flooding and water shortages.

The contributors, who include Environment and Climate Change Lecturer Dr Ruth Wood and Professor of Ecology Richard Bardgett, say that action to tackle urgent threats including widespread flooding and new diseases must be taken promptly.

The report also warns that wars and migration around the world caused by climate change could have significant consequences for the UK through disrupted trade and more overseas military intervention.

The worst-case scenarios - which will become reality if action to tackle climate change fails - foresees searing heatwaves reaching temperatures of 48°C in London, and the high 30s across the rest of England.

The wide-ranging assessment of the dangers of climate change to the UK has been produced over three years by a team of 80 experts, and reviewed by many more. The main analysis is based on the projected temperature rise if the last year’s Paris global climate agreement is fully delivered, and takes account of plans already in place to cope with impacts.

The key threats

Heatwaves
By the 2040s, deadly heatwaves such as the one in 2003 when UK temperatures peaked at 38.5°C will be the norm, leading to a tripling in heat-related deaths. There are currently no policies which ensure that homes, businesses, public transport, schools and hospitals remain tolerable in high heat.

Water shortages
Severe water shortages are expected as summers get drier, and will extend across the country by the 2050s. Demand for water will outstrip supply 2.5 times in many places in the UK if temperatures are driven up significantly.

Floods and coastal erosion
On average, flooding already causes £1bn of damage every year - but the risks will rise further still, bringing floods to places not currently in danger, as climate change leads to more intense rainfall. By 2050, the number of households at significant risk of flooding will more than double to 1.9m if the global temperature rises by 4°C.

Natural environment
The proportion of prime farmland is expected to fall from 38% to 9%, and crop growing in eastern England and Scotland could be ended by degraded soil and water shortages. Warming seas are pushing key species northwards, meaning the entire marine food chain may be affected.

Food
Food prices are likely to be driven up by climate change, with extreme weather leading to lost crops and sudden price shocks. About 40% of the UK’s food is imported, making it vulnerable to droughts and floods caused by climate change around the world.

Diseases and pests
Dangers posed by new diseases and pests invading the UK as the climate gets warmer require urgent research. Higher temperatures will lead to an increased risk of dengue fever, Zika virus and invasive species such as the Asian tiger mosquito.

Researchers from The University of Manchester have published a review of the current knowledge on tornadoes in Europe. The paper, the first of a series that will be published over the next year, is the first exhaustive study of the subject to be undertaken in nearly a century, and the scientists hope that it will lead to an increased understanding and more accurate forecasting.

Dr. Bogdan Antonescu and Professor David M. Schultz, in collaboration with Fiona Lomas and Thilo Kühne, felt the need to undertake the research as the threat of tornadoes to Europe is not widely recognised, meaning that many national meteorological services do not even forecast them - this has resulted in an underestimate of the risk associated with tornadoes. There was also a lack of knowledge about the possible influence of climate change, as the current spatial and temporal distribution and intensity of tornadoes across Europe was not known.

They worked together to analyse all the articles on tornadoes published in peer-reviewed meteorological and atmospheric science journals since 1800, as well as reviewing other sources including case studies, annual reports, historical scientific papers, conference talks and tornado databases maintained by individual countries or organisations. The result is a synthesis of tornado observations across Europe over the past two centuries which they have used to produce a pan-European tornado climatology.

It is anticipated that the findings will encourage further discussions and stimulate the interest of the scientific community, national meteorological services and the public, as well as identifying new sources that would allow an extension of the current European database. The team behind the review also hope that it will lead to tornadoes being seen as a pan-European problem, rather than something to be tackled by individual countries.

Dr. Bogdan Antonescu said: “To our knowledge, this is the first exhaustive study of the literature on tornadoes in Europe in nearly a century. This is really important if we want to understand European tornadoes and their associated risk.”

One of the biggest ever citizen science projects needs volunteers from 91Ö±²¥ to help measure air pollution in our environment. And all you need to take part is a smart phone.

The aim of the iSPEX-EU project is to get a clearer picture of our atmosphere and the level of air pollution we are breathing in every day.

Nearly 10,000 people across Europe will be taking part, from cities including Athens, Barcelona Belgrade, Berlin, Copenhagen, London, Milan and Rome as well as 91Ö±²¥. The results will be used to map out just how dirty our air is and hopefully track how pollution spreads through the continent. Such air pollution and the impact it has on our health and the environment is still poorly understood and it is not clear what impact such pollution will have on climate change.

By adding a simple piece of equipment to their phone and taking just a couple of minutes out of their day, volunteers can turn their phones into optical sensors which take measurements and upload them automatically for the researchers to study.

The add-on equipment is called a ‘spectropolarimeter’, and it is powerful enough to measure tiny particles in the air. It works with iPhone 4, 4S, 5 or 5S models. All volunteers have to do is scan the cloud free sky during daylight hours, while the phone’s camera takes pictures through the spectropolarimeter.

The particles in the atmosphere the equipment will track includes things of natural origin, such as sea salt or tiny ash particles from forest fires or volcanic eruptions, as well as man-made soot and haze produced by traffic and industry.

The Dutch group at Leiden Observatory that is leading the ISPEX-EU project, trialled a similar project in the Netherlands two years ago and proved to be extremely successful.

Carl Percival, Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry at The University of Manchester, said: “This is a really exciting project to be a part of, both for the way we are going about doing it and for the results it could produce. This is a project that means anyone with the right phone can take part in a real life science experiment, that will produce real data and help us know more about our environment.

“We need so many people to get a clear picture of what is going on in our atmosphere. At the moment we have pollution monitoring stations here and there but there just isn’t enough coverage to let us now in lots of details what is going on with our air quality.”

And Dr Hugo Ricketts, who is leading the project in 91Ö±²¥ said: “This is a very large scale project and we hope it is going to provide us with lots of data. If enough people take part then we should be able to track how air pollution moves through the city. We need as many people from all over 91Ö±²¥ from Rochdale down to Stockport and out to Wigan to take part.”

Dr David Topping, also of The University of Manchester, said: ‘This is one of a growing number of examples where traditional methods are being replaced with new approaches to tackle global problems. 91Ö±²¥ has a fantastic burgeoning technology community and it’s a perfect place to run such a project. I fully expect we will see many more such projects in the near future.”

The team at 91Ö±²¥ need up to 700 people to take part from across the city. If you are interested in taking part of just want more information, visit the website at and www.europe.light2015.org

The most common were sun and rain, and blizzards being the least common. The joint study published in the journal Weather also found many song writers were inspired by weather events.

The study involving The University of Manchester academics along with colleagues from Newcastle, Southampton, Oxford and Reading analysed the weather through lyrics, musical genre, keys and links to specific weather events.

Frequently, songs mentioned more than one weather type, indicating a range of emotions within a song. Songs mentioned up to six weather types, such as ‘Stormy’ by Cobb and Buie. Over 900 songwriters or singers have written or sung about weather, the most common being Bob Dylan, followed by John Lennon and Paul McCartney.

Weather-related songs are also very popular, with 7 per cent of them appearing Rolling Stone’s (2011) top 500 list of the Greatest Songs Of All Time[1].

The study also found that musicians were inspired by specific weather events. Dr Sarah Mander, from the University of Manchester, said: “There is definitely a pattern whereby after periods of bad weather you get a lot of weather related songs. References to bad weather in pop songs were statistically more significant in the USA during the more stormy 1950s and 1960s than the quieter periods of 1970s and 1980s, for example.

“And in 1969, George Harrison wrote the Beatles’ hit “Here Comes The Sun” after being inspired by one of the first sunny days of spring after a ‘long cold lonely winter’.”

The study concluded by noting a total of 30 weather-related artists, bands and lyricists, including Wet Wet Wet, The Weather Girls and KC and the Sunshine Band.

The team, who conducted the research in their spare time, are interested to learn about any weather-orientated music songs they may have missed in their study. For a full list of weather songs and to add missing songs, see

Notes for editors

A copy of the paper ‘Is there a rhythm of the rain? An analysis of weather in popular music’ Brown, S., Aplin, K.L., Jenkins, K., Mander, S., Walsh, C. and Williams, P. (2015) Weather (doi:10.1002/wea.2464) is available from Media Relations on request.

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Although most people think of twisters striking ‘Tornado Alley’ in the US, the UK actually has more tornadoes per area than any other country. And now we know where they are most likely to occur.

In a paper published in the journal Monthly Weather Review, the team from the University of Manchester show how they used eye-witness reports of the twisters to put together the map, which covers the UK from 1980–2012. Data for the study came from TORRO, an organisation which collects severe weather reports from the media and over 350 observers in the UK, Ireland and around the world.

During that period the country experienced an average of 34 tornadoes every year. Although the peak season for tornadoes is from May to October, they can occur at any time of the year. Most of those were in England (78%), with the most prone regions the south, south east and west where the threat of a tornado may be as high as 6% in any given year (in other words, a one in 17-year event).

Few of the storms were very strong however, with 95% classified as being F0 or F1 (or estimated wind speeds of up to 112 mph) with the remainder F2 (estimated wind speeds up to 157 mph). There were none any stronger than that, such as the devastating F5s (estimated wind speeds over 300 mph) that can hit the United States and cause widespread loss of life and damage to property. There were no tornadoes reported at all in large parts of Wales, Scotland, Ireland and Northern Ireland during 1980–2012. The study only included land-based tornadoes (not waterspouts) as they pose more of a threat to life and property.

Lead author of the paper Kelsey Mulder, of the School of Earth, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences at The University of Manchester, said: “F2 tornadoes are still quite strong and are perfectly capable of causing damage and injury. For example there was the twister that hit Birmingham in 2005 that caused 19 injuries and £40m of damage. Because tornadoes are capable of causing such damage it is important that we have some kind of idea where they are most likely to hit.”

Tornadoes are impossible to spot on satellite images and weather radar images aren’t always accurate either. They can show rotation where a tornado doesn’t occur and sometimes tornadoes occur where rotation is not shown on the radar. So the only way we know about them for sure is from eye-witness reports.

Kelsey added: “It seems that most tornadoes in the UK are created along long, narrow storms that form along cold fronts, whereas most tornadoes in the United States are created by isolated storms, which are more similar to the beautiful supercells you see in the movie Twister. Even in the United States, tornadoes formed along cold fronts tend to be weaker than those formed from supercells. That could be one reason why tornadoes in the UK are much weaker. But the process for how tornadoes form along cold fronts is not yet very well understood. Understanding why is my current research project.”

And Kelsey has a special reason for dedicating her life to studying tornadoes. She explained: “I was inspired to study these beautiful things when I was six years old. My home town of Boulder in Colorado was hit by one. It was my last day of school when the town was hit. It was only a small one that destroyed a few sheds but I was so scared at the time. But then later I realised just how amazing the weather is and I decided I wanted to study it.”

The areas of the UK most likely to have a tornado are:

Between London and Reading                                                                   6% chance per year of a tornado occurring within 10km of a given location

From Bristol, north to Birmingham and 91Ö±²¥                         5%

Northeast of London to Ipswich                                                               4%

South coast of Wales near Swansea                                                        3%

Notes for editors

The paper “Climatology, storm morphologies and Environments of Tornadoes in the British Isles: 1980–2012” is published in the June 2015 issue of Monthly Weather Review.

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Dr Allen, senior research fellow in the School of Earth, Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences at The University of Manchester said: “They have been measuring the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific for the past few months and they have noticed some changes. Just to be clear though this is a projection of what they think will happen, it is not yet definite. Currently there is not a strong El Nino but what they are saying is that by September they are expecting it to be.

“If that is the case then are several patterns we can expect. The US and Australia could suffer severe draughts. It will be much wetter than usual in South America in the past it has caused quite severe flooding.

“The impact on European UK weather conditions is harder to judge. There has never been a proven link between El Nino and the weather in our part of the world. All we can do is look back in the records to see what has happened. We are pretty sure it has an effect but it has been hard to prove.

“1997 was the last time we had a strong one, but there was also a weaker one in 2010. The weather in the winter of 2010 was extremely cold, in fact is was one of the coldest winters on record. And the summers the year after was much wetter than normal. But those are just correlations. And if El Nino doesn’t kick in till September as predicted then we won’t feel the impact this summer.”

Notes for editors

Sam Wood
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University of Manchester
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The unmanned aircraft, based at NASA’s Armstrong Flight Research Centre, California, can fly at twice the height of Mount Everest and double the altitude of a commercial jet for more than a day at a time, travelling the equivalent of half of the Earth’s circumference in a single flight in an atmosphere where the air pressure is less than a tenth of that at sea level.

The aircraft is flying above the equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean at an altitude of 20km, where the lowest layer of the atmosphere, the troposphere, meets the stratosphere above. Scientists believe this area, known as the tropopause, plays a critical role in Earth’s climate.

One of the instruments onboard, AIITS (the Aerosol Ice Interface Transition Spectrometer), measures particles like dust, water droplets, and ice crystals. The transport of particles and pollutants between the troposphere and stratosphere plays a crucial role in the climate system and the health of the ozone layer. AIITS was jointly developed by the universities of Hertfordshire and 91Ö±²¥.

AIITS is able to detect and measure the scattering and surface properties in great detail of single ice crystals in these clouds including as they evolve from the possible amorphous phases to the ice phase. These fundamental measurements, combined with the Global Hawk's other state of the art equipment will be used to improve weather models.

Professor Martin Gallagher and Dr James Dorsey of The University of Manchester helped to develop the instrument.

Martin said: “Cirrus clouds typically cover 30% of the globe and are a critical component of global climate models since depending on their altitude, thickness, ice particle size and shape, they can either cool or warm the upper atmosphere. However cirrus radiative properties in the infra-red, where they may contribute significantly to the Earth's long-wave radiation budget have not been comprehensively measured together with in situ microphysics and state properties of this part of the atmosphere.”

James, of The National Centre for Atmospheric Science at The University of Manchester said: “This is an incredible opportunity to bring together the University of Hertfordshire's technical experience and 91Ö±²¥'s atmospheric measurement expertise with a uniquely capable aircraft. The ability to make measurements up to the equatorial stratosphere means that we can address important questions about the global water cycle and its role in Earth's climate. And flying to the Galapagos Islands and back non-stop makes for a really interesting day at the office.”

 

Notes for editors

Sam Wood
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University of Manchester
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And the findings, published today in the Nature journal Scientific Reports, could have implications for conserving the species living in the vast area affected by monsoon rains.

A team including researchers from the University of Manchester, the University of Bristol, the Chinese Academy of Science, and Harvard University looked at the pattern of variation of the South Asian monsoon over time and compared it with the evolution of African mole rats and bamboo rats as revealed by a full analysis of their relationships coupled with studies of their distribution in space and through time and of their evolutionary rates.

They found the first proof that weakening and strengthening monsoon rains played a key role in the evolution of these species. Over a period of 24 million years, the changes observed in the teeth and head shape of the rodents examined, matched the varying strength of the monsoon. Of the 38 species studied only six still exist today and the changing rains seem to have driven several species into extinction.

Dr Fabien Knoll, a senior researcher at The University of Manchester, said:  “It was natural to assume that a mighty climatic phenomenon like the monsoon would play a part in evolution, but until now there has never been any decisive evidence thereof. We have now found that.”

The monsoon is a key driver of the environment in that part of the world. When it was strong forest cover and vegetation would be a lot fuller than in periods when the rains were weaker.

Dr Knoll added: “We used rodents in this study because they are the most common mammals in the fossil record, and they evolved rapidly and are very sensitive to any changes in their habitat.”

The researchers found that in periods when the monsoon was weaker the teeth of these rodents changed, as did other body parts they would use for digging, and they started to burrow underground. This would have provided them with resources as well as protection from predators when the forest cover was a lot thinner.

The authors of this study added: “We suggest that the variations in the monsoon intensity have impacted the evolution of most, if not all, mammals living in this region, although this remains to be proved convincingly (using our methodology or others) and the pattern would probably vary from group to group.”

Notes for editors

Ref: The paper “Causal evidence between monsoon and evolution of rhizomyine rodents” will be published in the journal Scientific Reports on Wednesday March 11. DOI: 10.1038/srep09008

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Around a third of people over-65 and half of those over 80 will fall every year. In addition, the fear of falling can be a major barrier to independence.

As part of an EC funded project called , researchers at The University of Manchester are working together with partners across Europe to ensure that older people feel confident to remain active in their own home.

from the University said: “The mental and physical health benefits of being independent in the home are enormous, yet a fear of falling can prevent many people from carrying out activities.

“Living with a fear of falling can create a lot of worry to family members, friends and to us – resulting in a great deal of distress. A fear of falling can also lead to us dropping out of activities and staying at home more. This can result in a loss of confidence and feelings of boredom, frustration and loneliness.” 

To counteract this, the researchers are spreading information about simple activities that people can do and have created five films with exercises that people can do easily at home. Watch them .

They are also taking a technological approach by developing an app for smart phones which automatically sends a text, to a fall alarm service and / or a carer or relative, when someone has fallen.

This is currently being trialled in Norway in a group of older people.  One of them said: “It would make me feel safe to get a phone call from a person who asks what has happened. One who is not so far away.” Others have said that having this app on their smartphone would give them confidence to go outdoors, when they would have otherwise stayed at home.
Dr Hawley-Hague is convinced that the high numbers of falls can be reduced by people taking precautions and speaking to their GP more frequently.  “Keeping fit is even more important as you get older.  Simple exercises and getting advice on healthy ageing can stop you falling and remove a lot of worry from your life.”

Dr Hawley-Hague’s advice to prevent falls:

1. Stay active and improve your strength and balance by attending a specific class run by your local authorities and health services
2. Did you know that you can be taught techniques for getting down to the floor and back up again? This will increase your confidence and is included in some strength and balance classes.
3. If you are concerned about your balance see your GP to get a referral to physiotherapy for a prescribed exercise plan
4. You can also see you GP or local authority to get a risk assessment done on your home
5. Keep moving around.  Research suggests that you should do 150 minutes of moderate intensity activity each week, in bouts of 10 minutes. But check with your GP if you have any existing conditions.
6. Good sturdy shoes will help you keep you balance and tucking in loose clothes prevents them catching on things.
7. Get your eyes tested regularly.  This will help you keep your balance and spot trip hazards.
8. Some medications can increase your risk of falling.  Check with your GP or discuss these issues with your pharmacist.
9. If you have fractured a limb recently and you have not had your bone health assessed, go to your GP to discuss your risk of Osteoporosis (fragile bones).
10. If you would like to know more about how you can be involved in developing technology which could help you to remain active or prevent falls, then (or your nearest university).

Notes for editors

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Jamie Brown
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The University of Manchester
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Email: jamie.brown@manchester.ac.uk

Marine Cloud Brightening is a reversible geoengineering method proposed to mitigate rising global temperatures. It relies on propelling a fine mist of salt particles high into the atmosphere to increase the albedo of clouds – the amount of sunlight they reflect back into space. This would then reduce temperatures on the surface, as less sunlight reaches the Earth.

Clouds form when water droplets gather on dust or other particles in the air. Increasing the amount of salt particles in the atmosphere allows more of these water droplets to form, making the clouds denser and therefore more reflective.

A new paper, published in the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, has looked at four different ways of getting the particles into the sky, to compare how effective they may be. The researchers found that a technique called the ‘Rayleigh Jet’ proved to be best.

Named after Lord Rayleigh, who provided the theory, the technique relies on spraying a fine jet of water that breaks down into small droplets into the sky. The liquid droplets evaporate quickly, leaving behind just the salt particles.

These particles, say the paper’s authors, could be generated from specially built ships that could travel the world’s oceans spraying salt particles into the air where they then hang in the atmosphere for several days until they return to Earth as rain.

Previous studies have optimised the size of the salt particles needed to produce the best increase in cloud reflectance but haven’t taken into account how much energy the technique would need and how much it would cost to operate. This new paper, by teams at the universities of Manchester, Washington and Edinburgh, tackled this question. The researchers tested each technique so there was an increase in reflection of 5%, a figure that would combat the predicted effects of increased carbon dioxide levels over the rest of this century. They then looked at how much energy each would consume.  

The scientists say that the Rayleigh jet method could produce the desired effect using 30 megawatts of energy, about the same energy that two large ships produce.

Dr Paul Connolly, based in the School of Earth, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences at The University of Manchester, said: “It can be incredibly energy intensive to propel water high into the atmosphere and the energy required had never really been tested before. Our paper optimises the salt particle sizes to produce the required change in cloud reflectance for the least energy cost. It is an important finding if these techniques should be needed in the future.

“I am not recommending that we use any of these techniques now, but it is important to know how best to use them should they become necessary. Should no progress be made to reduce CO2 levels, then geoengineering techniques, similar to this, might become necessary to avoid dangerous rises in global temperatures.”

Notes for editors

A copy of the paper, entitled 'Factors determining the most efficient spray distribution for marine cloud brightening', and published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, is available on request.

Dr Paul Connolly is available for interview through the press office.

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Writing in the journal Weather, Climate and Society, the University of Manchester researchers argue that cutting greenhouse gas emissions, while crucial to reducing humanity’s longer-term impact on the planet, will not eliminate violent storms, tornadoes or flooding and the damage they cause.

The authors suggest that developing greater resilience to extreme weather events must be given greater priority if the socioeconomic impact of storms, like those that have ravaged Britain this winter, is to be reduced.

Professor David Schultz, one of the authors of the guest editorial, said: “One of the long-term effects of climate change is often predicted to be an increase in the intensity and frequency of many high-impact weather events, so reducing greenhouse gas emissions is often seen to be the response to the problem.

“Reducing humanity’s impact on our planet should be pursued as a matter of urgency, but more emphasis must also be placed on being resilient to individual weather events, as this year’s storms in Britain have so devastatingly shown.”

In the past, say the authors, society responded to weather disasters with calls for greater resilience, but public awareness of manmade climate change has given climate timescales (decades and centuries) far greater importance than weather timescales (days and years).

Schultz, a professor of synoptic meteorology, and co-author Dr Vladimir Janković, a science historian specialising in weather and climate, say the short-term, large variability from year to year in high-impact weather makes it difficult, if not impossible, to draw conclusions about the correlation to longer-term climate change.

They argue that while large public investments in dams and flood defences, for example, must account for the possibilities of how weather might change in the future, this should not prevent short-term thinking to address more immediate vulnerability to inevitable high-impact weather events.

“Avoiding construction in floodplains, implementing strong building codes, and increasing preparedness can make society more resilient to extreme weather events,” said Dr Janković. “But compounding the problem is that finding money for recovery is easier than spending on prevention, even if the costs of recovery are much higher.”

This bias, say the authors, has a tendency to diminish the political dedication for preventative measures against extreme weather, regardless of whether they are caused or intensified by manmade influences. Yet, steps taken to protect society from the weather can protect the planet as well, they argue.

Dr Janković, based in the Centre for the History of Science, Technology and Medicine, said: “Improving forecasting, increasing preparedness or building better infrastructure can increase resilience and reduce carbon-dioxide emissions. For example, greening neighbourhoods or painting roofs lighter colours will both reduce the urban heat-island effect and reduce carbon-dioxide emissions through reduced air-conditioning costs, while making cities more resistant to storm damage would reduce emissions generated from rebuilding devastated areas.”

Professor Schultz, from the School of Earth, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, added: “Linking high-impact weather events with climate change can be distracting; perpetuating the idea that reducing greenhouse gases would be enough to reduce increasingly vulnerable world populations, in our view, only confuses the public and policy-makers as to the socio-economic susceptibility to extreme weather.

“With or without mitigation, there is no quick-fix, single-cause solution for the problem of human vulnerability to socio-environmental change, nor is there a reasonable prospect of attenuating high-impact weather. Addressing such issues would give the world an opportunity to develop a two-pronged policy in climate security, reducing longer-term climate risks in conjunction with preventing shorter-term weather disasters.”

Ends

Notes for editors

A copy of the Weather, Climate and Society guest editorial, ‘Climate Change and Resilience to Weather Events,’ by D. Schultz and V. Jankovic, is available on request.

Professor Schultz is available for interview through the press office.

For further information contact:               

Aeron Haworth
Media Relations
Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences
The University of Manchester

Tel: 0161 275 8387
Mob: 07717 881563
Email: aeron.haworth@manchester.ac.uk

A changing climate and the increasing prevalence of surface water flooding means we can no longer rely only on large defences to protect people and property, according to a University of Manchester researcher.

Dr Iain White said new small-scale technologies can be applied to buildings to manage surface water flooding.
 
However, structural defences continue to play a role in mitigating flooding from rivers and the sea, he added.
 
He said: ‘Flood doors, flood guards and perimeter barriers are becoming a crucial tool to counter flooding caused by intense rainfall, however not enough people or organisations are aware of these technologies and how to use them.
 
“They can be used in addition to large scale defences, or where defences are unaffordable.”
 
To address this problem, research led by Dr White designed new guidance on how to use these measures. It is aimed at local authorities, property owners, and flood risk professionals in England and is launched today.
 
A six step process guides users on how to implement new technologies from surveying, through to design and maintenance.
 
He added: “Based on the latest research and working with industry partners, our guidance simplifies the process and shares best practice. We hope this guidance achieves the longer term goal of improving the route to market for innovative technology to prevent flooding at the building scale.”
 
The research project (SMARTeST) was produced in collaboration between The University of Manchester, The Building Research Establishment and 91Ö±²¥ Metropolitan University.
 
Hosted in collaboration with the National Flood Forum, the launch event will take place at Carr’s Lane Church Centre in Birmingham on June 4th with a host of experienced speakers including Dr. Stephen Garvin (BRE), Paul Cobbing (the National Flood Forum), Dr Iain White (The University of Manchester) and Gavin George (the Flood Protection Association).

Notes for editors

Photo courtesy think4photop/

The Guidance is part of an EU funded project involving ten European research institutes technology providers, environment agencies, the insurance industry and local authorities on smart resilience technology, systems and tools (SMARTeST).
 
It is available on request.
 
Dr. Iain White is available for interview.
 
For media enquiries contact
Dr Iain White
07985218511
iain.white@manchester.ac.uk
 
The results from the SMARTeST project are available to view at:
 
To enquire about other results from SMARTeST, contact:
Dr Stephen Garvin
Building Research Establishment
garvins@bre.co.uk
01355 576242
 
 
Mike Addelman
Press Officer
Faculty of Humanities
The University of Manchester
0161 275 0790
07717 881567
Michael.addelman@manchester.ac.uk
 

Atmospheric scientists are piloting up to eight flights around London, which started in the past month and will continue over the coming weeks, to measure carbon monoxide, ozone, nitrogen dioxide and aerosol levels.  They found that the long periods of stormy weather and low pressure have resulted in excellent air quality.

As the wet weather continued into the Games, this could mean the London Olympic Games will be one of the cleanest in recent times.

The University of Manchester Atmospheric Scientists and partners from the Met Office, other UK universities, NERC’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science,  and other agencies around the UK, have been monitoring air and ground pollution levels over the past two years as part of Clearflo (Clean Air for London)– a collaborative scientific project to provide long-term measurements of London’s urban atmosphere.

They are monitoring carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide and ozone – key markers of pollution and a hazard to health – and harmful aerosol levels in the atmosphere, as well as other chemicals in the atmosphere, and trying to establish what happens to urban pollution and to where it goes.

Early results have shown that lengthy periods of low pressure which have affected the UK for much of the summer have meant that pollution has not settled over the capital but instead has been moved offshore. High pressure areas, typical of warm, sunny weather, trap in pollution and do not allow it to leave.

The airborne component of ClearFlo, led by Dr Grant Allen from The University of Manchester, took to the skies in one of the UK’s dedicated research aircraft which can provide real-time data on pollution levels.

Since the Olympic no-fly zone was put in place, the flights have concentrated on the areas outside the M25, measuring the air quality going in and out of the capital.

Dr Allen said: “Put simply, the reason the air quality is so good is because the weather has been so bad this summer.

“The areas of low pressure have left us with very clean air, unusually clean for summer months over the UK. The pollution that is generated moves away in the evenings and goes in a variety of directions depending on wind direction.”

“A change in the weather, such as that seen in the week leading up to the Opening Ceremony could bring pollution levels back closer to the norm but the processes by which this happens are exactly what we are aiming to study during ClearFlo.

“We have monitored the pollution levels closely during the Games  to look for a tell tale shift in the pollution regime. As a result of this combined study, we hope to be able to more accurately predict air quality for London in the future, as well as a better understanding of how London pollution affects those downwind.

“With more accurate predictions, we can hope to mitigate the known health impacts associated with poor air quality. The Olympics provided an excellent case study for us as traffic levels and activity were closely monitored and quantified.

“By sampling the air going into and coming out of London with the aircraft, and using measurements on the ground within the city itself, we can say something about what was added to the air as it passed over London and what this means for those living downwind.”

Funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Clearflo also involves a number of scientists on the ground, measuring levels in and around the Olympic Park and other major London venues.

 

Notes for editors

Dr Allen is available for interview on request.

For media enquiries please contact:

Suzanne Ross
Media Assistant
University of Manchester
0161 275 8258
suzanne.ross@manchester.ac.uk

Marion O’Sullivan
Senior Press Officer
NERC
01793 411727;
07917 086369
mjo@nerc.ac.uk

Mike Addelman (from Monday 13 Aug)
Press Officer
University of Manchester
0161 275 0790
michael.addelman@manchester.ac.uk

Clearflo is coordinated by NERC’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science.  As well as The University of Manchester, other UK institutions involved in Clearflo are:
•    University of Reading
•    King’s College London
•    University of Birmingham
•    University of York
•    University of Leeds
•    University of Hertfordshire
•    University of East Anglia
•    University of LeicesterNERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (Edinburgh)
•    Met Office

For more information about the project:

Clearflo is an accredited programme within the Living With Environmental Change partnership
1. The Atmospheric Research Aircraft is a BAe-146 which is managed by NERC and the Met Office through the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements . The aircraft is owned by BAE Systems and operated by Direct Flight Ltd. This flying laboratory is fitted with highly sophisticated scientific equipment that measures wind speed, temperature, humidity, the composition of particles in clouds, and other atmospheric properties. It makes research flights across the world to investigate weather, climate and the environment for the UK atmospheric research community.

2. The University of Manchester Centre for Atmospheric Science is an internationally leading research group of over 40 academic and research staff involved in the measurement and modelling of the Earth’s atmospheric composition and dynamics. It has a long history in airborne measurement all over the world, contributing to weather and climate modelling activities and instrument development.

3. NERC is the UK's main agency for funding and managing world-class research, training and knowledge exchange in the environmental sciences. It coordinates some of the world's most exciting research projects, tackling major issues such as climate change, food security, environmental influences on human health, the genetic make-up of life on earth, and much more.   NERC receives around £300 million a year from the government's science budget, which it uses to fund research and training in universities and its own research centres.

4The Met Office provide forecasts of daily air quality index to provide advice on expected levels of air pollution, which can have short-term effects on our health. The forecasts are provided to enable the public to understand the level air quality and the impact this could potentially have. The Met Office daily air quality index provides information for each of over 5000 sites and goes out to 5 days ahead.

 

Professor Hugh Coe – Head of School & Professor of Atmospheric Composition. Expertise includes pollution, particles in the atmosphere and clouds.

Professor Geraint Vaughan – Professor of Meteorology. Areas of expertise include storms and severe weather.

Professor Tom  Choularton – Head of the Centre of Atmospheric Science. Happy to talk about cloud processes, thunderstorms and climate change.

Professor Gordon McFiggans – Professor of Atmospheric Multiphase Processes. Can talk on air quality, pollution and natural composition of the atmosphere.  He has previously appeared on the BBC Coast series.

Professor David Schultz – Professor of Dynamical Meteorology. Expertise includes severe weather and storms and weather patterns.

Professor Carl Percival – Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry. Specialises in chemical properties in the atmosphere. 

Professor Ann Webb – Professor of Atmospheric Radiation. Interests are UV, stratospheric ozone and vitamin D.

Dr Paul Connolly – Senior Lecturer in the School of Earth, Atmospheric and Environmental Science. Has a particular interest in ice in the atmosphere, as well as cloud processes and thunderstorms.

Dr Grant Allen – NERC Research Fellow.  Expertise includes volcanic ash – including a number of media appearances during the Eyafyallajokull eruption discussing volcanic ash – weather, air quality and remote sensing of the atmosphere.

All members of the group have media experience, some extensive, and would be available for print, radio, TV and online interviews.

More details can be found at

Notes for editors

In order to arrange an interview with one of the group, please contact Daniel Cochlin in the Press Office.

Daniel Cochlin

Media Relations Officer
The University of Manchester
0161 275 8387
daniel.cochlin@manchester.ac.uk

Tuesday is the wettest day of the week, suggests new analysis of rainfall data for 91Ö±²¥.

The work, which was carried out for 91Ö±²¥ Science Festival 2009, also suggests that it’s now raining more at weekends than in the past.

Preliminary research into 110 years worth of data for 91Ö±²¥ – a city known for its soggy climate – by a University of Manchester researcher also suggests:

* Rainfall in 91Ö±²¥ has increased by more than 10 per cent over the last 110 years

* Saturdays are getting wetter in 91Ö±²¥

* The largest increase in rainfall in 91Ö±²¥ has occurred over the last 30 years
 

Analysis has revealed that over the last 110 years, Tuesdays were the wettest days, followed closely by Sundays.

Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays were the driest days.

However, before the increase in rainfall over the last 30 years, Sundays were the wettest days.

Atmospheric scientist Dr Andy Russell of The University of Manchester sifted through years’ worth of data collected in the Whalley Range area of South 91Ö±²¥.

Dr Russell said: “These preliminary results are extremely interesting, although we need to do further work to assess how widespread this pattern is and the reasons behind it.

“To do this, more weather stations in the North West will be analysed and data from an interactive experiment we are running during 91Ö±²¥ Science Festival will be used.”

Dr Russell is encouraging children and adults in the Greater 91Ö±²¥ area to make their own rain gauges and help him investigate and verify his findings.

“As a scientist I want to test the old theory that it rains more at the weekend, not only because rainy weekends ruin your social life, but to see whether cars, factories and industry, which are much more active during the week, affect our weather patterns.

He added: “Good data collected during the 91Ö±²¥ Science Festival will shape the direction of the research and could unlock the answers.”

Instructions on how to make rain gauges and take part in the data gathering during 91Ö±²¥ Science Festival 2009 can be found at .

A more detailed summary of the analysis and data can be seen at

Dr Russell will be leading a special rain workshop event at 91Ö±²¥ Science Festival 2009 on Saturday 31 October at MOSI from 11am to 3pm. A prize will be available for the best science from the day. The event is free and participants can just drop in.

Dr Russell is a member of NOISEmakers, who will be at 91Ö±²¥ Science Festival on Thursday 29 October and Friday 30 October. Based at MOSI, they will be demonstrating an array of exciting experiments. For more information see .

NOISE (New Outlooks In Science & Engineering) is a UK-wide campaign funded by the Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), and NOISEmakers have the job of enthusiastically communicating the importance and relevance of scientific research to a wide public audience.

Now in its third year, the 91Ö±²¥ Science Festival is packed with over 150 events, exploring anything and everything to do with science, technology, engineering and maths.

The Festival has a particular focus on the relevance of these topics to our everyday lives and the history and work taking place in our region. It is supported by the Northwest Regional Development Agency (NWDA), MOSI and Siemens.

Notes for editors

Dr Andy Russell is available for comment by arrangement.

For more information please contact Alex Waddington, Media Relations, The University of Manchester, on 0161 275 8387 / 07717 881569.